Title : 2000 years of pandemics: Past, present and future
Abstract:
A pandemic is considered as an outbreak of a disease occurring over a wide geographic area, crossing national borders, and affecting a high proportion of the world. During the 1st millennium AD, three main pandemics emerged. The Antonine Plague (165-190 AD), caused by hemorrhagic smallpox, killed 5 million people and contributed to the downfall of the Roman Empire. Four-hundred years later, the Justinian plague caused by Yersinia pestis decimated the Byzantine Empire, killing 50 million people. Between 1346-1353, the black death took 200 million lives (1/3) of the European population.
With the American colonization, Europeans brought several infectious diseases to the New World including Yersinia pestis, smallpox, influenza, enteric salmonella, among others, subsequently devastating 90% of the local Native American population. During the late 19th century and through the mid-20th century, several influenza outbreaks emerged. The Russian flu, Spanish flu, Asian flu (H2N2), Hong Kong flu killed around two billion people worldwide. In addition, previously unknown viruses, such as Marburg, Ebola, and HIV came into public awareness in the mid-1970. From 2002 to present, Influenza, Swine Flu, SARS, MERS, and SARS-COVID-19 have killed and infected several million people. The role of wildlife in emerging zoonotic diseases has been well documented since the 20th century. However, its frequency seems to increase since the 20th century. Three main factors are associated to pandemics emergence: Human development, climate change and human displacement. The history of previous pandemics needs to be reconsidered to learn from mistakes of the past, building a better future.
