Title : Modeling zika virus disease dynamics with control strategies
Abstract:
In this research work, we formulated a fractional-order model for the transmission dynamics of Zika virus that incorporates three control strategies namely; health education campaign, use of insecticides, and prevention measures. We presented the theoretical analysis of the model. More precisely, we obtained the disease free-equilibrium and basic reproduction number, and analyzed the existence and uniqueness of model solution using fixed point theorem. Meanwhile, we performed model parameter estimation using real data of Zika virus reported in Colombia. We noted that fractional-order model had best t to the real data compared to classical integer model. Sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number have been performed using computed partial rank correlation coefficient to determine the effect of each parameter on the Zika virus transmission. Furthermore, we performed numerical simulation of the model to determine the impact of memory effect on the spread of Zika virus transmission. From simulation results we noted that the order of derivatives have significantly impact on the dynamics of Zika virus disease. Additionally, we simulated the model to assess the effect of control strategies. Overall, we observed that the proposed interventions have the potential to reduce the spread of Zika virus in the population.
