Title : Objective regressive regression methodology in function of infectious entities and natural disasters
Abstract:
The objective of the present research consisted in demonstrating the potentialities and real capacity of application of the methodology of the Regressive Objective Regression (ROR) in the different fields and branches of scientific research. The results obtained were possible, thanks to the analysis and processing of different databases by means of the ROR methodology, for which, in a first step, dichotomous variables DS (Saw tooth), DI (Inverted Saw tooth) and NoC (Number of cases of the base) are created. Subsequently, the module corresponding to the Regression analysis of the statistical package SPSS version 19.0 is executed, specifically the ENTER method, where the predicted variable and the ERROR are obtained. Then the autocorrelograms of the variable ERROR are obtained, paying attention to the maximum of the significant partial autocorrelations PACF, and the new variables are calculated according to the significant Lag of the PACF. Finally, these regressed variables are included in the new regression in a process of successive approximations until a white noise in the regression errors is obtained. The ROR methodology requires few cases to be used and also allows the use of exogenous variables, with the possibility of modeling and forecasting in the short, medium and long term, depending on the exogenous variable. It is concluded that the ROR methodology as a linear mathematical methodology has demonstrated potentialities and real capacities of application in dissimilar fields and branches of science, with modeling possibilities that go beyond the modeling of infectious entities of parasitic and viral etiology, Acute Respiratory Infections, Acute Bronchial Asthma crises, forecasting of extreme meteorological disturbances, prediction of latitude and longitude of earthquakes, modeling of the Equivalent Effective Temperature and Atmospheric Pressure, and even the electricity consumption of a municipality, province and nation.
Keywords: autocorrelations; autocorrelograms; ROR methodology; potentialities; dichotomous variables.
Audience take away:
I. The ROR methodology for the control of culicidae larval populations
II. The ROR methodology and its incidence on fluvial and terrestrial malacofauna of veterinary medical interest
III. The ROR methodology and its application in transmissible infectious entities
IV. The ROR methodology applied to Acute Respiratory Infections and Bronchial Asthma Crisis
V. Applicability of the ROR methodology to natural disasters VI. ROR Methodology vs. COVID-19
